Hassania Agadir 1–0 Raja Beni Mellal

Hassania Agadir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raja Beni Mellal

M. Oubilla 57'

7/27/2020

Botola Pro · Round 19Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hassania Agadir49%

×Draw31%

Raja Beni Mellal20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hassania AgadirExpected goals in this matchRaja Beni Mellal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.65

Hassania Agadir

1.18

Raja Beni Mellal

0.65

Hassania Agadir creates 82% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 15 away

1.16

creates per match

0.27

1.02

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hassania Agadir

1.16

Raja Beni Mellal

0.27

allows per match

Hassania Agadir

1.02

Raja Beni Mellal

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw

80%

Hassania Agadir or Raja Beni Mellal

69%

Draw or Raja Beni Mellal

51%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

22%

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

69%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

33%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

12%

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

48%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

14%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

71%

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 116 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.16 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.27 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more

49%

level

31%

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

20%

Hassania Agadir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Soufiane Bouftini

34'

Yassine Salhi

34'

J. Ech-Chammakh← A. Mallouki

46'

H. Baaouch← I. Qandil

57'

64'

66'

69'

77'

R. Ait Hammou← M. Hajjar

82'

K. Ait Mohamed← D. Bennani

83'

M. Ben Hssaine← A. Sadiki

85'

I. El Azzaoui← Z. Grirrane

90+7'

T. Idsghir← Y. Alfahli

Hassania

Raja

31

30

3

17

15

▼

Grirrane

93

Idrissi

14

▼

Hajjar

26

Mesyaf

11

Benjellou

87

▼

Salhi

20

▼

55

4

15

33

3

▼

Sadiki

17

Kimaoui

20

⚽

Oubilla

22

Chaouch

28

▼

Bennani

27

▼

Mallouki

99

▼

Alfahli

Manager: R. Lobello

34'▲J. Ech-Chammakh←▼A. Mallouki

82'▲K. Ait Mohamed←▼D. Bennani

83'▲M. Ben Hssaine←▼A. Sadiki

90+7'▲T. Idsghir←▼Y. Alfahli

Hassania Agadir substitutes

23Ech-Chammakh13Mohamed16Hssaine41Idsghir2Bassaine18Qamoum30Bellali

46'▲H. Baaouch←▼I. Qandil

69'▲M. Allali←▼Y. Salhi

77'▲R. Ait Hammou←▼M. Hajjar

85'▲I. El Azzaoui←▼Z. Grirrane

Raja Beni Mellal substitutes

8Baaouch21Allali55Hammou29Azzaoui1Kbiri6Maher16Lrhrar