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Raja Beni Mellal vs Hassania Agadir — Cup 2020

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellaladvanced
FT
2 – 0
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
M. Dghoughi 78' (pen)
A. Mahri 64'
5/5/2021CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal37%
×Draw30%
Hassania Agadir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.10
Hassania Agadir
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.20
Hassania Agadir
1.50

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.60
Hassania Agadir
1.00

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
66%
Raja Beni Mellal or Hassania Agadir
70%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
63%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
15%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
67%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
30%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
10%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
65%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
28%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
52%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.20 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hassania Agadir attack 1.50 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
37%
level
30%
Hassania Agadir scores more
34%

Raja Beni Mellal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
A. Mahri
78'
M. DghoughiPenalty
90+1'
S. Morsli
90+1'
S. Morsli
90+4'
Y. Esdiri
90+4'
Y. Esdiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Hassania Agadir

Raja Beni Mellal beat Hassania Agadir 2-0 in Cup on May 5, 2021.

Goals: A. Mahri (64'), M. Dghoughi (78' pen).

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal in Beni Mellal.