Raja Beni Mellal 0–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Raja Beni Mellal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Difaa EL Jadida

9/2/2023

Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal35%

×Draw34%

Difaa EL Jadida31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja Beni MellalExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.82

Raja Beni Mellal

0.90

Difaa EL Jadida

0.82

Raja Beni Mellal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

0.84

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal

1.13

Difaa EL Jadida

0.80

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal

0.84

Difaa EL Jadida

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw

69%

Raja Beni Mellal or Difaa EL Jadida

66%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

65%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

12%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

59%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

23%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

6%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

56%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

20%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

53%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

35%

level

34%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

31%

Raja Beni Mellal at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff