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Difaa EL Jadida vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
2/9/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 16Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida47%
×Draw29%
Raja Beni Mellal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.26
Raja Beni Mellal
0.79

Difaa EL Jadida creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.40
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.67
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
77%
Difaa EL Jadida or Raja Beni Mellal
71%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
53%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
22%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
72%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
36%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
13%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
55%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
19%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
67%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.26

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
47%
level
29%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
23%

Difaa EL Jadida at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Raja Beni Mellal

Difaa EL Jadida beat Raja Beni Mellal 2-1 in Botola 2 on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.