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Raith Rovers vs Alloa Athletic — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/9/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Raith Rovers73%
×Draw17%
Alloa Athletic10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.32
Alloa Athletic
0.73

Raith Rovers creates 218% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.43
Alloa Athletic
0.60

allows per match

Raith Rovers
0.86
Alloa Athletic
2.20

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
90%
Raith Rovers or Alloa Athletic
83%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
27%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
49%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
90%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
67%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
40%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
52%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
17%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
88%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.43 + Alloa Athletic defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.32

Alloa Athletic attack 0.60 + Raith Rovers defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
73%
level
17%
Alloa Athletic scores more
10%

Raith Rovers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Alloa Athletic

Raith Rovers beat Alloa Athletic 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.