Raith Rovers 0–0 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alloa Athletic

7/24/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Raith Rovers53%

×Draw21%

Alloa Athletic27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.49

Raith Rovers

2.16

Alloa Athletic

1.49

Raith Rovers creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

2.58

creates per match

1.73

1.25

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.58

Alloa Athletic

1.73

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.25

Alloa Athletic

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

73%

Raith Rovers or Alloa Athletic

79%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

47%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

88%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

63%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

36%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

44%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

67%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

53%

level

21%

Alloa Athletic scores more

27%

Raith Rovers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff