Raith Rovers 3–1 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alloa Athletic

J. Gullan 90+1'

R. Hendry 84'

I. Davidson 68'

I. Cameron 14'

2/27/2021

League #180 · Round 18Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Raith Rovers54%

×Draw22%

Alloa Athletic24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.19

Raith Rovers

1.90

Alloa Athletic

1.19

Raith Rovers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.37

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Raith Rovers

1.89

Alloa Athletic

1.00

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.37

Alloa Athletic

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

76%

Raith Rovers or Alloa Athletic

78%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

46%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

70%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

33%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

69%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 1.89 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Alloa Athletic attack 1.00 + Raith Rovers defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

54%

level

22%

Alloa Athletic scores more

24%

Raith Rovers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Cameron↳ K. Cawley

45'

58'

61'

64'

68'

69'

78'

C. Ugwu← I. Duku

84'

R. Hendry↳ K. Kennedy

85'

A. Graham

86'

L. Buchanan← R. Grant

89'

J. Gullan← K. Kennedy

90'

F. Musonda← R. Tumilty

90+1'

J. Gullan↳ R. Hendry

Raith

Alloa

1

5

2

3

10

7

A

8

12

6

22

▼

Grant

11

⚽

Cameron

1

MacDonald

4

⚽

Davidson

6

Benedictu

3

MacDonald

2

▼

Tumilty

12

Matthews

8

⚽A

Hendry

7

Armstrong

13

Spencer

21

A

▼

Kennedy

9

▼

Duku

Manager: J. McGlynn

78'▲C. Ugwu←▼I. Duku

89'▲J. Gullan←▼K. Kennedy

90'▲F. Musonda←▼R. Tumilty

Raith Rovers substitutes

23Ugwu32Gullan14Musonda18Tait26King5Mendy17Thomson

Manager: P. Grant

86'▲L. Buchanan←▼R. Grant

Alloa Athletic substitutes

9Buchanan51Wright18Malcolm15Jamieson17Connelly23Murray19Thomson