Radomiak Radom 1–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nieciecza

Maurides 6'

J. Jimenez 3'

8/22/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 6Stadion Radomiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Radomiak Radom49%

×Draw23%

Nieciecza28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.33

Radomiak Radom

1.83

Nieciecza

1.33

Radomiak Radom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 8 away

1.71

creates per match

1.39

1.28

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.71

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

1.28

Nieciecza

1.96

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.02on par

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

72%

Radomiak Radom or Nieciecza

77%

Draw or Nieciecza

51%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

84%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

54%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

28%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

74%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

38%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

64%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.28 · 30 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.71 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

49%

level

23%

Nieciecza scores more

28%

Radomiak Radom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Jimenez

Nieciecza · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

6'

37'

52'

54'

L. Masoero← A. Putivtsev

55'

A. Trubeha← S. Guerrero

69'

E. Balde← Zie Ouattara

73'

R. Boboc← D. Hilbrycht

75'

R. Alves← C. Donis

75'

A. Tapsoba← V. Lopes

80'

R. Kurzawa← M. Fassbender

80'

W. Jakubik← J. Jimenez

84'

I. Camara← M. Kaput

84'

Depu← Maurides

85'

Andrzej Trubeha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadomiakNieciecza

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots13

2Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target2

6Off Target10

7Blocked1

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

474Total Passes286

402Accurate Passes214

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Ekstraklasa: Radomiak Radom 1–1 Nieciecza

Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on August 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Jimenez (3'), Maurides (6').

Radomiak Radom controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Radomiaka in Radom.

Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Radomiak Radom 1–1 Nieciecza