Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 11+ matches
Radomiak Radom49%
Nieciecza28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Radomiak Radom creates 37% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Radomiak Radom ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.28 · 30 matches
Nieciecza away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Radomiak Radom attack 1.71 + Nieciecza defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84
Nieciecza attack 1.40 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Radomiak Radom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Radomiak Radom substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon SzczecinRadomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia Gdansk
Motor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka GdyniaNiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Radomiak Radom host Nieciecza on Saturday, 2 October 2021 at 10:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza
Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on October 2, 2021.
Goals: A. Radwański (46'), Tiago Matos (90+4').
Radomiak Radom controlled possession (53%) and registered 29 shots to 8.
The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Radom.