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Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
CANC
12:00
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
7/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Radomiak Radom30%
×Draw22%
Nieciecza48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.50
Nieciecza
1.94

Nieciecza creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.89
Nieciecza
2.50

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
1.39
Nieciecza
1.10

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
52%
Radomiak Radom or Nieciecza
78%
Draw or Nieciecza
70%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
14%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
78%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
44%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
19%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
86%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
58%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
39%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.89 + Nieciecza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nieciecza attack 2.50 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
30%
level
22%
Nieciecza scores more
48%

Nieciecza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Radomiak Radom face Nieciecza (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Radomiak Radom hosting Nieciecza. Match starts July 12, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Radomiak Radom host Nieciecza at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.