Radomiak Radom 3–1 Arka Gdynia: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Arka Gdynia

R. Baro 77'

Capita 8'

R. Wolski 6'

D. Gojny 56'

3/5/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 19Stadion im. Braci Czachorów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Radomiak Radom53%

×Draw24%

Arka Gdynia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchArka Gdynia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.10

Radomiak Radom

1.76

Arka Gdynia

1.10

Radomiak Radom creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

0.93

1.28

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.71

Arka Gdynia

0.93

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

1.28

Arka Gdynia

1.81

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.02on par

Arka Gdynia-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Arka Gdynia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

76%

Radomiak Radom or Arka Gdynia

76%

Draw or Arka Gdynia

47%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

29%

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

83%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

52%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

26%

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

67%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

30%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

69%

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.28 · 30 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.81 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.71 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Arka Gdynia attack 0.93 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

53%

level

24%

Arka Gdynia scores more

24%

Radomiak Radom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Majchrowicz

Radomiak Radom · G

8.7

Match Events

6'

R. Wolski

8'

Capita↳ C. Donis

11'

K. Jakubczyk← L. Perea

22'

I. Camara← C. Donis

32'

Dawid Gojny

45+2'

Nazariy Rusyn

46'

D. Kocyla← M. Navarro

49'

55'

56'

63'

75'

75'

75'

77'

80'

80'

E. D. Espiau Hernandez← V. Gutkovskis

84'

Zié Ouattara

90+1'

Aurélien Nguiamba

90+2'

Leandro← J. Grzesik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadomiakArka

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots14

1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.14

3Corners7

23Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target8

7Off Target3

0Blocked3

6Inside Box12

6Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

337Total Passes364

257Accurate Passes272

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

-1.71Goals Prevented-1.71

Discipline

23Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia

Radomiak Radom beat Arka Gdynia 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 5, 2026.

Goals: R. Wolski (6'), Capita (8'), D. Gojny (56'), R. Baro (77').

Arka Gdynia controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Radom.

Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia