Arka Gdynia 1–1 Radomiak Radom: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Radomiak Radom

D. Abramowicz 14'

J. Grzesik 61'

7/25/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 2Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia50%

×Draw23%

Radomiak Radom27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

Arka Gdynia

1.79

Radomiak Radom

1.27

Arka Gdynia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.59

creates per match

1.10

1.44

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Radomiak Radom

1.10

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Radomiak Radom

1.99

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Radomiak Radom-0.06on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

73%

Arka Gdynia or Radomiak Radom

77%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

50%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

27%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

83%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

53%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

26%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

72%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

36%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

65%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.99 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.79

Radomiak Radom attack 1.10 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

50%

level

23%

Radomiak Radom scores more

27%

Arka Gdynia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

D. Abramowicz

Arka Gdynia · D

8.3

Match Events

6'

Abdoul Tapsoba

14'

D. Abramowicz↳ S. Kerk

28'

João Pedro

46'

M. Predenkiewicz← J. Oliveira

52'

Dawid AbramowiczGoal cancelled

56'

Maurides← A. Tapsoba

56'

R. Wolski← M. Kaput

61'

J. Grzesik↳ R. Wolski

64'

Percan← S. Sobczak

70'

D. Zator← M. Navarro

70'

T. Gaprindashvili← D. Kocyla

78'

Zie Ouattara← Capita

81'

L. Perea← K. Jakubczyk

82'

Bruno Jordão

84'

Michał Marcjanik

86'

P. Golubickas← V. Lopes

86'

C. Donis← R. Alves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArkaRadomiak

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots15

0.73Expected Goals (xG)0.75

5Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target3

5Off Target10

1Blocked2

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

319Total Passes334

251Accurate Passes266

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2