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Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
R. Alves 41', 40'
F. Nascimento 38' (pen)
M. Predenkiewicz 87'
C. Aleman 62'
7/3/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Radomiak Radom49%
×Draw24%
Arka Gdynia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.69
Arka Gdynia
1.19

Radomiak Radom creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.89
Arka Gdynia
1.00

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
1.39
Arka Gdynia
1.50

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Arka Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
73%
Radomiak Radom or Arka Gdynia
76%
Draw or Arka Gdynia
51%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
26%
Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
82%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
50%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
24%
Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
70%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
33%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
65%
Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.89 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Arka Gdynia attack 1.00 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
49%
level
24%
Arka Gdynia scores more
27%

Radomiak Radom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Marcjanik
38'
F. NascimentoPenalty
40'
R. Alves
41'
R. Alves
45+2'
M. Grzybek
46'
M. Stepien← M. Stepien
46'
H. Adamczyk← C. Aleman
46'
A. Purzycki← S. Milewski
46'
B. Rymaniak← J. Tomal
46'
J. Ojrzynski← J. Ojrzynski
46'
Maurides← Maurides
59'
D. Lukasik← Luizao
59'
M. Grzybek← D. Pawlowski
62'
C. Aleman
65'
D. Pik← D. Sokol
66'
K. Czubak← M. Kuzimski
67'
J. Gol← M. Predenkiewicz
74'
Luizao
74'
M. Stepien
87'
M. Predenkiewicz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia

Radomiak Radom beat Arka Gdynia 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2022.

Goals: F. Nascimento (38' pen), R. Alves (40', 41'), C. Aleman (62'), M. Predenkiewicz (87').

The match was played at Stadion GOTiS in Gniewino.