Radnicki 1923 1–0 Mladost Lucani: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lucani

S. Chinedu 74'

2/16/2025

Super Liga · Round 23Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Radnicki 192342%

×Draw27%

Mladost Lucani31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Radnicki 1923

1.39

Mladost Lucani

1.15

Radnicki 1923 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

0.78

creates per match

0.84

1.45

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

0.78

Mladost Lucani

0.84

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

1.45

Mladost Lucani

2.00

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.10scores more

Mladost Lucani+0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

69%

Radnicki 1923 or Mladost Lucani

73%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

58%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

20%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

75%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

40%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

16%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

68%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

32%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

58%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.45 · 8 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.78 + Mladost Lucani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mladost Lucani attack 0.84 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

42%

level

27%

Mladost Lucani scores more

31%

Radnicki 1923 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Ćosić

Radnicki 1923 · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

Slobodan Simović

42'

Aleksej Golijanin

63'

B. Adžić← A. Golijanin

64'

M. Ristić← Alfa Baldé

64'

S. Chinedu← T. Dadić

74'

S. Chinedu↳ M. Ćosić

87'

J. Ilić← L. Ben Hassine

87'

Ž. Udovičić← N. Leković

87'

O. Krsmanović← O. Bondžulić

90'

M. Gluščević← B. Mirčetić

90'

U. Ljubomirac← N. Andrić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnickiMladost

Overview

67%Possession33%

17Total Shots7

7Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target3

6Blocked2

4Inside Box6

13Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

478Total Passes233

409Accurate Passes142

86%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0