Mladost Lucani 0–2 Radnicki 1923: Result & Stats

Mladost Lucani

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Radnicki 1923

L. Ben Hassine 9'

O. Sahli 2'

12/3/2025

Super Liga · Round 14Mladost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mladost Lucani28%

×Draw30%

Radnicki 192342%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LucaniExpected goals in this matchRadnicki 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.17

Mladost Lucani

0.91

Radnicki 1923

1.17

Radnicki 1923 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

1.32

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Mladost Lucani

1.24

Radnicki 1923

1.01

allows per match

Mladost Lucani

1.32

Radnicki 1923

0.57

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Mladost Lucani-0.36scores less

Radnicki 1923-0.41scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Radnicki 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw

58%

Mladost Lucani or Radnicki 1923

70%

Draw or Radnicki 1923

72%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

10%

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

60%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

23%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

6%

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

69%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

33%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

40%

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.32 · 8 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.24 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.01 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more

28%

level

30%

Radnicki 1923 scores more

42%

Radnicki 1923 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

L. Ben Hassine

Radnicki 1923 · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

O. Sahli↳ K. Bevis

9'

L. Ben Hassine↳ K. Bevis

28'

Danilo Pantić

41'

Louay Ben Hassine

41'

A. Varjacic← N. Boranijasevic

41'

N. Milojevic← D. Pantic

41'

N. Bukumira← O. Sahli

42'

S. Simovic← S. Petkoski Cimbaljevic

59'

Janko Tumbasević

62'

Aleksandar Varjačić

62'

Janko TumbasevićCard upgrade

65'

U. Ljubomirac← J. Tumbasevic

80'

D. Dokic← P. Bojic

80'

M. Todosijevic← U. Sremcevic

85'

I. Bah← A. Balde

90+2'

J. Ilic← L. Ben Hassine

90+2'

L. Stankovski← M. Ristic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MladostRadnicki

Overview

51%Possession49%

3Total Shots13

0.09Expected Goals (xG)1.20

1Corners2

23Fouls20

Shots

3Total Shots13

0On Target6

2Off Target6

1Blocked1

1Inside Box5

2Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

356Total Passes342

265Accurate Passes262

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

23Fouls20

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1