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Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
4/23/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Relegation Group - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mladost Lucani28%
×Draw30%
Radnicki 192342%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
0.91
Radnicki 1923
1.17

Radnicki 1923 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.24
Radnicki 1923
1.01

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.32
Radnicki 1923
0.57

finishing

Mladost Lucani-0.36scores less
Radnicki 1923-0.41scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
58%
Mladost Lucani or Radnicki 1923
70%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
72%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
10%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
60%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
23%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
6%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
69%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
33%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
40%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.32 · 8 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.24 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.01 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
28%
level
30%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
42%

Radnicki 1923 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. JoksimovicMladost LucaniMladost Lucani · D
9.5

Match Events

9'
Nikola Miličić
16'
Jovan Ćirić
63'
Mohamed Cissé
65'
A. Varjacic← N. Boranijasevic
65'
P. Bojic← I. Hadzic
65'
Evandro← A. Balde
72'
Veljko Kijevčanin
77'
N. Bukumira← O. Sahli
82'
U. Ljubomirac← F. Zunic
82'
J. Djurkovic← D. Djokic
90+1'
M. Vidakov← E. Sokler
90+1'
T. Ude← L. Ben Hassine

Possession

51%Mladost

Shots

9Mladost

Pass accuracy

49%Mladost

Statistics

MladostRadnicki
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots18
0.47Expected Goals (xG)0.68
5Corners4
17Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots18
1On Target7
4Off Target7
4Blocked4
6Inside Box15
3Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
416Total Passes412
325Accurate Passes338
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2

Super Liga: Mladost Lucani 0–0 Radnicki 1923

Mladost Lucani and Radnicki 1923 drew 0-0 in Super Liga on April 23, 2026.

Mladost Lucani controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 18.