Racing Louisville W 3–1 Portland Thorns W

Racing Louisville W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Portland Thorns W

E. Sears 90'

K. O'Kane 77', 14'

S. Wilson 6'

5/8/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageLynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Racing Louisville W43%

×Draw26%

Portland Thorns W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Racing Louisville W

1.46

Portland Thorns W

1.20

Racing Louisville W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.28

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

Portland Thorns W

1.11

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

Portland Thorns W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

69%

Racing Louisville W or Portland Thorns W

74%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

57%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

21%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

77%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

43%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

18%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

70%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

34%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

58%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Portland Thorns W attack 1.11 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

43%

level

26%

Portland Thorns W scores more

31%

Racing Louisville W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Wilson

Portland Thorns W · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

S. Wilson↳ O. Moultrie

14'

K. O'Kane↳ L. Milliet

41'

Kayla Fischer

46'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← R. Turner

52'

D. Castellanos← C. Bogere

61'

64'

71'

77'

83'

83'

87'

88'

M. Padelski← R. Reyes

90'

E. Sears

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingPortland

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots9

4Corners0

10Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target2

6Off Target6

7Blocked1

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

267Total Passes289

214Accurate Passes237

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 3–1 Portland Thorns W

Racing Louisville W beat Portland Thorns W 3-1 in NWSL Women on May 8, 2026.

Goals: S. Wilson (6'), K. O'Kane (14', 77'), E. Sears (90').

Racing Louisville W controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville.

Racing Louisville W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 3–1 Portland Thorns W