Portland Thorns W 3–3 Racing Louisville W

Portland Thorns W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Racing Louisville W

J. Perry 90' (pen)

J. Fleming 45' (pen)

R. Turner 17'

E. Sears 39'

K. Fischer 32'

S. Demelo 9'

4/27/2025

NWSL Women · Round 6Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portland Thorns W56%

×Draw24%

Racing Louisville W21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.97

Portland Thorns W

1.75

Racing Louisville W

0.97

Portland Thorns W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

1.83

creates per match

1.16

0.78

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.83

Racing Louisville W

1.16

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.78

Racing Louisville W

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

79%

Portland Thorns W or Racing Louisville W

76%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

44%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

31%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

83%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

52%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

25%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

62%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

25%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

73%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.83 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Racing Louisville W attack 1.16 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

56%

level

24%

Racing Louisville W scores more

21%

Portland Thorns W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Fischer

Racing Louisville W · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

S. Demelo↳ K. Fischer

17'

R. Turner↳ J. Perry

32'

K. Fischer

39'

E. Sears↳ J. Sonis

41'

Emma SearsGoal confirmed

45'

J. FlemingPenalty

67'

P. Linnehan← R. Turner

67'

R. Reyes← M. Mckenzie

68'

S. Weber← K. Fischer

74'

P. Tordin← D. Castellanos

74'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← J. Fleming

75'

K. O'Kane← S. Demelo

83'

A. Spaanstra← K. Torpey

90+6'

Reyna Reyes

90+7'

Reyna ReyesPenalty confirmed

90'

J. PerryPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandRacing

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots18

2Corners3

21Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots18

3On Target8

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

10Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

316Total Passes247

247Accurate Passes175

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls20

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Portland Thorns W vs Racing Louisville W

Portland Thorns W and Racing Louisville W drew 3-3 in NWSL Women on April 27, 2025.

Goals: S. Demelo (9'), R. Turner (17'), K. Fischer (32'), E. Sears (39'), J. Fleming (45' pen), J. Perry (90' pen).

Portland Thorns W controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland.

Portland Thorns W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portland Thorns W vs Racing Louisville W