Racing Louisville W 1–2 Portland Thorns W

Racing Louisville W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Portland Thorns W

K. O'Kane 22'

E. Jean 90' (OG)

J. Dufour 31'

9/6/2025

NWSL Women · Round 19Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Racing Louisville W43%

×Draw26%

Portland Thorns W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Racing Louisville W

1.46

Portland Thorns W

1.20

Racing Louisville W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.28

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

Portland Thorns W

1.11

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

Portland Thorns W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

69%

Racing Louisville W or Portland Thorns W

74%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

57%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

21%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

77%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

43%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

18%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

70%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

34%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

58%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Portland Thorns W attack 1.11 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

43%

level

26%

Portland Thorns W scores more

31%

Racing Louisville W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Bloomer

Racing Louisville W · G

8.3

Match Events

22'

K. O'Kane

31'

J. Dufour

36'

Julie Dufour

64'

M. Mckenzie← K. Torpey

64'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← J. Dufour

70'

M. DiGrande← K. O'Kane

75'

Jayden Perry

77'

M. Morris← E. Hase

87'

Daiane← P. Tordin

89'

90+4'

90+1'

90+3'

90'

E. JeanOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingPortland

Overview

46%Possession54%

25Total Shots15

11Corners2

17Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots15

6On Target8

8Off Target4

11Blocked3

17Inside Box12

8Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

298Total Passes363

215Accurate Passes294

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs Portland Thorns W

Portland Thorns W beat Racing Louisville W 2-1 in NWSL Women on September 6, 2025.

Goals: K. O'Kane (22'), J. Dufour (31'), E. Jean (90' o.g.).

Portland Thorns W controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 25.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville.

Racing Louisville W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs Portland Thorns W