Racing Ferrol 0–1 Deportivo La Coruna

Racing Ferrol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Coruna

3/29/2025

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol33%

×Draw29%

Deportivo La Coruna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.18

Racing Ferrol

1.08

Deportivo La Coruna

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

1.02

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.02

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

1.21

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

62%

Racing Ferrol or Deportivo La Coruna

71%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

67%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

13%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

66%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

29%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

47%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

33%

level

29%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

38%

Deportivo La Coruna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff