Deportivo La Coruna vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 42+ matches
Deportivo La Coruna51%
Racing Ferrol23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo La Coruna creates 66% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo La Coruna ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches
Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48
Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Deportivo La Coruna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Osasuna
Granada CF
Malaga
Albacete
MallorcaDeportivo La Coruna
Cadiz
Oviedo
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Elche
Las Palmas
Extremadura
Alcorcon
Zaragoza
Tenerife
Numancia
Lugo
Rayo Majadahonda
Gimnastic
Cordoba
ReusIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo La Coruna host Racing Ferrol on Sunday, 1 September 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Racing Ferrol
Deportivo La Coruna beat Racing Ferrol 1-0 in Segunda División on September 1, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.