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Deportivo La Coruna vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
12/11/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna48%
×Draw28%
Racing Ferrol24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.31
Racing Ferrol
0.83

Deportivo La Coruna creates 58% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
76%
Deportivo La Coruna or Racing Ferrol
72%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
22%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
14%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
56%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
20%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
67%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
48%
level
28%
Racing Ferrol scores more
24%

Deportivo La Coruna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Racing Ferrol

Deportivo La Coruna beat Racing Ferrol 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.