Racing Club vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Racing Club43%
Gimnasia L.P.30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Racing Club creates 25% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Racing Club ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Racing Club at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 12 matches
Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.61 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Racing Club attack 1.09 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35
Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.15 + Racing Club defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Racing Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Racing Club
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Tigre
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Aldosivi
Godoy Cruz
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
Estudiantes L.P.Gimnasia L.P.
Patronato
Rosario Central
San Martin S.J.
Belgrano Cordoba
San Lorenzo
Colon Santa Fe
San Martin Tucuman
Argentinos JrsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Racing Club host Gimnasia L.P. on Saturday, 10 August 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Racing Club 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P. beat Racing Club 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 10, 2024.
Goals: B. Domínguez (13').
Racing Club controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.