Racing Club 0–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

2/13/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Racing Club43%

×Draw27%

Gimnasia L.P.30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.08

Racing Club

1.35

Gimnasia L.P.

1.08

Racing Club creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.09

creates per match

1.15

1.02

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Racing Club

1.09

Gimnasia L.P.

1.15

allows per match

Racing Club

1.02

Gimnasia L.P.

1.61

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Racing Club-0.01on par

Gimnasia L.P.-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

70%

Racing Club or Gimnasia L.P.

73%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

57%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

20%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

74%

Racing Club 2+ goals

39%

Racing Club 3+ goals

15%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

66%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

29%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

59%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 12 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.61 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 1.09 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.15 + Racing Club defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Club scores more

43%

level

27%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

30%

Racing Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

L. Sigali

Racing Club · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

33'

35'

35'

36'

43'

45+2'

52'

59'

63'

63'

65'

68'

C. Alcaraz← L. Miranda

68'

F. Domínguez← M. Rojas

72'

M. Insaurralde← R. Cecchini

80'

T. Chancalay← J. Correa

80'

E. Copetti← G. Hauche

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingGimnasia

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots8

9Corners2

23Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target3

8Off Target2

4Blocked3

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

455Total Passes239

350Accurate Passes159

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls18

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2