Gimnasia L.P. 3–1 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Club

F. Soldano 90+9'

L. Morales 55'

C. Tarragona 8'

J. Gómez 67'

4/8/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 10Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.27%

×Draw28%

Racing Club45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.34

Gimnasia L.P.

0.97

Racing Club

1.34

Racing Club creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

0.63

creates per match

1.23

1.46

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

0.63

Racing Club

1.23

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.46

Racing Club

1.31

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.23scores less

Racing Club+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

55%

Gimnasia L.P. or Racing Club

72%

Draw or Racing Club

73%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

10%

Racing Club wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

62%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

25%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

7%

Racing Club 1+ goals

74%

Racing Club 2+ goals

39%

Racing Club 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

37%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.63 + Racing Club defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.97

Racing Club attack 1.23 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

27%

level

28%

Racing Club scores more

45%

Racing Club at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Soldano

Gimnasia L.P. · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

C. Tarragona↳ F. Soldano

23'

27'

29'

35'

45+3'

45+3'

46'

46'

N. Reniero← G. Hauche

50'

53'

55'

56'

67'

75'

M. Comba← A. Steimbach

76'

79'

80'

86'

90'

Maximiliano RomeroPenalty cancelled

90+9'

F. Soldano↳ C. Tarragona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaRacing

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots12

4Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked3

4Inside Box9

12Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

272Total Passes404

180Accurate Passes280

66%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

9Offsides0