Quevilly 0–3 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Quevilly

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Niort

S. Renel 82'

Joseph Mendes 23' (pen)

L. Vallier 13'

10/16/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Quevilly44%

×Draw27%

Niort29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuevillyExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Quevilly

1.39

Niort

1.06

Quevilly creates 31% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 92 away

1.24

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Quevilly

1.24

Niort

0.85

allows per match

Quevilly

1.27

Niort

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw

71%

Quevilly or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

56%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+

21%

Niort wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals

75%

Quevilly 2+ goals

40%

Quevilly 3+ goals

16%

Niort 1+ goals

65%

Niort 2+ goals

29%

Niort 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)

61%

Niort (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.24 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Niort attack 0.85 + Quevilly defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Quevilly scores more

44%

level

27%

Niort scores more

29%

Quevilly at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Yongwa

Niort · D

8.2

Match Events

7'

Lenny Vallier

13'

L. Vallier↳ Joseph Mendes

23'

Joseph MendesPenalty

39'

Damon Bansais

46'

F. Jozefzoon← J. Rotsen

46'

Y. Bahassa← M. Haddad

46'

S. Lambese← D. Bansais

51'

Moataz Zemzemi

59'

Guy-Marcelin Kilama

61'

S. Benchamma← B. Doukansy

74'

S. Renel← L. Vallier

82'

S. Renel↳ B. Boutobba

84'

S. Belkorchia← N. Dekoke

89'

J. Moutachy← B. Boutobba

89'

Y. Merdji← M. Zemzemi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QuevillyNiort

Overview

53%Possession47%

6Total Shots11

3Corners3

21Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target5

2Off Target5

2Blocked1

2Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

443Total Passes397

357Accurate Passes325

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Quevilly 0–3 Niort

Niort beat Quevilly 3-0 in Ligue 2 on October 16, 2021.

Goals: L. Vallier (13'), Joseph Mendes (23' pen), S. Renel (82').

Quevilly controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Robert Diochon in Le Petit-Quevilly.

Quevilly vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Quevilly 0–3 Niort