Quevilly 1–2 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Quevilly

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Niort

M. N'Dao 56'

A. Dona N'Doh 59', 16'

3/2/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Quevilly45%

×Draw27%

Niort28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuevillyExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.05

Quevilly

1.40

Niort

1.05

Quevilly creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 93 away

1.24

creates per match

0.84

1.27

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Quevilly

1.24

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Quevilly

1.27

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw

72%

Quevilly or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

55%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+

21%

Niort wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals

75%

Quevilly 2+ goals

41%

Quevilly 3+ goals

17%

Niort 1+ goals

65%

Niort 2+ goals

28%

Niort 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)

61%

Niort (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.24 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Niort attack 0.84 + Quevilly defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Quevilly scores more

45%

level

27%

Niort scores more

28%

Quevilly at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Dona N'Doh

Niort · F

8.8

Match Events

16'

A. Dona N'Doh↳ J. Da Costa

29'

Julien Da Costa

46'

T. Lebeau← A. Dembélé

47'

Jeff Louis

56'

M. N'Dao↳ J. Lefort

57'

Y. Mamilonne← R. Boujedra

57'

J. Clauss← P. NGuinda

59'

A. Dona N'Doh

60'

Jordan Lefort

77'

Jeremy Choplin

78'

G. Koyalipou← D. Djigla

86'

Romain Basque

87'

T. Vion← A. Leautey

88'

D. Caddy← E. Tié Bi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QuevillyNiort

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots7

12Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

421Total Passes318

328Accurate Passes214

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2