Niort 3–3 Quevilly: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Quevilly

B. Boutobba 90+3'

A. Sagna 44'

M. Zemzemi 34'

M. Bangré 66', 49'

K. Sidibé 45+1'

6/2/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Niort38%

×Draw28%

Quevilly34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchQuevilly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.16

Niort

1.25

Quevilly

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 58 away

1.09

creates per match

1.10

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Quevilly

1.10

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Quevilly

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Quevilly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Quevilly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

66%

Niort or Quevilly

72%

Draw or Quevilly

62%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

17%

Quevilly wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

71%

Niort 2+ goals

36%

Niort 3+ goals

13%

Quevilly 1+ goals

69%

Quevilly 2+ goals

32%

Quevilly 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

53%

Quevilly (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Quevilly away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Quevilly defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Quevilly attack 1.10 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more

38%

level

28%

Quevilly scores more

34%

Niort at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Mamady Bangré

Quevilly · M

9.0

Match Events

33'

L. Vallier← D. Durivaux

34'

44'

45+1'

49'

50'

60'

60'

66'

67'

I. Tshipamba← I. Soumaré

67'

G. Gbellé← K. Sidibé

72'

R. Bakayoko← G. Bentil

73'

S. Benchamma← M. Zemzemi

75'

T. Pionnier← N. Cissé

75'

A. Bonnet← M. Bangré

83'

J. Smith← G. Sangaré

90+3'

B. Boutobba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortQuevilly

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots17

5Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots17

4On Target8

2Off Target7

2Blocked2

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

433Total Passes525

349Accurate Passes456

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2