Queen of the South 2–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cove Rangers

R. Lyon 79'

B. Luissint 67'

4/11/2026

League #183 · Round 33Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Queen of the South43%

×Draw25%

Cove Rangers32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.32

Queen of the South

1.58

Cove Rangers

1.32

Queen of the South creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.15

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Queen of the South

1.78

Cove Rangers

1.50

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.15

Cove Rangers

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

68%

Queen of the South or Cove Rangers

75%

Draw or Cove Rangers

57%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

22%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

79%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

47%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

21%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

73%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

38%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

58%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.78 + Cove Rangers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cove Rangers attack 1.50 + Queen of the South defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Queen of the South scores more

43%

level

25%

Cove Rangers scores more

32%

Queen of the South at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

K. Kennedy

64'

S. Mason← J. Allan

67'

B. Luissint↳ N. Clark

73'

C. Maguire← C. Masson

75'

B. Yule

78'

R. McAllister← J. Teasdale

79'

R. Lyon

84'

D. Eguaibor← L. O'Donnell

88'

B. Johnstone← B. Luissint

88'

Z. MacKenzie← N. Clark

90+1'

N. Rogerson← M. Douglas

Queen

Cove

21

15

32

6

7

14

▼

Masson

22

▼

O'Donnell

18

Emslie

8

Yule

16

▼

9

34

2

5

▼

Douglas

11

Dickenson

12

Penman

4

⚽

Lyon

8

⚽

▼

Luissint

7

Smith

88

A

▼

Clark

10

Kennedy

9

▼

Allan

Manager: Peter Murphy

64'▲S. Mason←▼J. Allan

88'▲B. Johnstone←▼B. Luissint

88'▲Z. MacKenzie←▼N. Clark

90+1'▲N. Rogerson←▼M. Douglas

Queen of the South substitutes

26Green3Charters14Johnstone15Rogerson16MacKenzie18Stott20Mason21Ross

Manager: Paul Hartley

73'▲C. Maguire←▼C. Masson

78'▲R. McAllister←▼J. Teasdale

84'▲D. Eguaibor←▼L. O'Donnell

Cove Rangers substitutes

1Mutch2Bisland4Strachan17McAllister20Eguaibor26Carrol77Maguire