Cove Rangers 2–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Queen of the South

B. Yule 47'

M. Megginson 8' (pen)

K. Kennedy 77'

5/10/2025

League #180 · Relegation RoundBalmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cove Rangers43%

×Draw23%

Queen of the South34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.48

Cove Rangers

1.70

Queen of the South

1.48

Cove Rangers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.80

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.60

Queen of the South

1.16

allows per match

Cove Rangers

1.80

Queen of the South

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

66%

Cove Rangers or Queen of the South

77%

Draw or Queen of the South

57%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

22%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

82%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

51%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

24%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

77%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

43%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

56%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.60 + Queen of the South defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Queen of the South attack 1.16 + Cove Rangers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

43%

level

23%

Queen of the South scores more

34%

Cove Rangers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. MegginsonPenalty

9'

19'

33'

47'

49'

B. Luissint← M. Douglas

56'

C. Scully← M. Megginson

63'

F. Bryden← H. Cochrane

69'

F. Fyvie← D. Glass

76'

F. Fyvie

76'

L. Parker← F. Marshall

77'

K. Kennedy↳ R. Stewart

90+5'

M. Hewitt

Cove

Queen

1

A

Stewart

5

▼

2

16

22

6

▼

Cochrane

4

Lyon

29

Allan

10

⚽

7

12

1

3

7

15

6

8

⚽

Yule

10

▼

Glass

22

Emslie

17

▼

Marshall

18

Lobban

9

⚽

▼

Megginson

Manager: P. Hartley

56'▲C. Scully←▼M. Megginson

69'▲F. Fyvie←▼D. Glass

76'▲L. Parker←▼F. Marshall

Cove Rangers substitutes

4Scully24Fyvie32Parker20Gaffney11McGrath23Robertson2Murray

Manager: P. Murphy

49'▲B. Luissint←▼M. Douglas

63'▲F. Bryden←▼H. Cochrane

Queen of the South substitutes

8Luissint19Bryden20Johnson35Brydon18Charters25Doherty23Walker17O'Donnell32Thomson