Cove Rangers 1–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Queen of the South

M. Megginson 71'

K. Kennedy 2'

2/7/2026

League #183 · Round 24Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cove Rangers39%

×Draw25%

Queen of the South36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.36

Cove Rangers

1.42

Queen of the South

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.36

creates per match

1.59

1.14

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.36

Queen of the South

1.59

allows per match

Cove Rangers

1.14

Queen of the South

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

64%

Cove Rangers or Queen of the South

75%

Draw or Queen of the South

61%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

18%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

76%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

41%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

17%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

74%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

39%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

52%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.36 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Cove Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

39%

level

25%

Queen of the South scores more

36%

Cove Rangers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

16'

21'

35'

45'

51'

58'

B. Dickenson← L. Smith

63'

K. Guthrie

64'

M. Mazwi← J. Stott

67'

L. O'Donnell

71'

M. Megginson↳ L. O'Donnell

72'

J. Teasdale← L. O'Donnell

72'

L. Carrol← F. Fyvie

72'

C. Maguire← J. Masson

83'

B. Dickenson

83'

L. Carroll

90+1'

B. Johnstone←

Cove

Queen

1

2

5

15

3

8

4

7

▼

Smith

18

▼

Stott

10

⚽

28

1

2

15

32

7

8

14

▼

Masson

22

A

▼

O'Donnell

24

▼

Fyvie

18

Emslie

9

⚽

Megginson

Manager: Paul Hartley

72'▲J. Teasdale←▼L. O'Donnell

72'▲L. Carrol←▼F. Fyvie

72'▲C. Maguire←▼J. Masson

Cove Rangers substitutes

21Demus4Strachan6Eguaibor16Teasdale17McAllister20Eguaibor26Carrol77Maguire

Manager: Peter Murphy

58'▲B. Dickenson←▼L. Smith

64'▲M. Mazwi←▼J. Stott

90+1'▲B. Johnstone←▼—

Queen of the South substitutes

26Green9Allan11Dickenson14Johnstone16MacKenzie19Mazwi20Mason21Ross