Queen of the South 0–3 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cove Rangers

12/7/2021

FA Cup · 3rd Round ReplaysPalmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen of the South24%

×Draw22%

Cove Rangers54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.94

Queen of the South

1.23

Cove Rangers

1.94

Cove Rangers creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

1.14

2.75

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Queen of the South

0.75

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Queen of the South

2.75

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

46%

Queen of the South or Cove Rangers

78%

Draw or Cove Rangers

76%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

10%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

71%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

35%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

13%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

58%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

31%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 0.75 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Queen of the South defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Queen of the South scores more

24%

level

22%

Cove Rangers scores more

54%

Cove Rangers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Queen of the South 0–3 Cove Rangers

Cove Rangers beat Queen of the South 3-0 in FA Cup on December 7, 2021.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.

Queen of the South vs Cove Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Queen of the South 0–3 Cove Rangers