Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

QPR vs Watford — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Watford
Watford
T. Iroegbunam 15'
3/11/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Watford29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.35
Watford
1.06

QPR creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Watford
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Watford
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
65%
Watford 2+ goals
29%
Watford 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Watford (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Watford attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Watford scores more
29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
João PedroWatfordWatford · F
8.0

Match Events

15'
T. Iroegbunam
44'
Jamal Lowe
45+1'
Hamza Choudhury
57'
A. Adomah← L. Dykes
61'
Tim Iroegbunam
71'
S. Johansen← T. Iroegbunam
76'
Y. Asprilla← R. Porteous
76'
B. Assombalonga← I. Sarr
84'
L. Amos← A. Drewe
84'
S. Armstrong← A. Dozzell
90+6'
Wesley Hoedt

Possession

40%QPR

Shots

11QPR

Pass accuracy

42%QPR

Statistics

QPRWatford
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots9
2Corners5
14Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target2
2Off Target5
5Blocked2
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
243Total Passes358
124Accurate Passes250
51%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

QPR 1 – 0 Watford

QPR beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on March 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Iroegbunam (15').

Watford controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.