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QPR vs Watford — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Watford
Watford
I. Chair 77'
B. Wilmot 3'
11/21/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Watford30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.34
Watford
1.06

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Watford
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Watford
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
65%
Watford 2+ goals
29%
Watford 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
59%
Watford (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Watford attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Watford scores more
30%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. CarrollQPRQPR · M
7.9

Match Events

3'
B. Wilmot↳ K. Sema
46'
N. Hamalainen← L. Wallace
46'
T. Deeney← A. Gray
46'
Domingos Quina← João Pedro
56'
C. Willock← D. Ball
56'
L. Dykes← M. Bonne
59'
Ken Sema
69'
A. Adomah← B. Osayi-Samuel
77'
I. Chair↳ L. Dykes
85'
Craig Cathcart
90'
Lyndon Dykes

Possession

55%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRWatford
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots10
7Corners7
14Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target3
7Off Target4
4Blocked3
11Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
445Total Passes363
363Accurate Passes278
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: QPR vs Watford

QPR and Watford drew 1-1 in Championship on November 21, 2020.

Goals: B. Wilmot (3'), I. Chair (77').

QPR controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.