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QPR vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
E. Eze 29'
D. McGoldrick 65' (pen)
B. Sharp 43'
8/11/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

QPR38%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.25
Sheffield Utd
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Sheffield Utd
1.27

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
65%
QPR or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
62%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
71%
QPR 2+ goals
36%
QPR 3+ goals
13%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
70%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
34%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
52%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

QPR scores more
38%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
35%

QPR at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. ScowenQPRQPR · M
7.8

Match Events

29'
E. Eze
43'
B. Sharp↳ K. Freeman
46'
B. Osayi-Samuel← P. Smyth
64'
D. McGoldrick← B. Sharp
65'
Joel Lynch
65'
D. McGoldrickPenalty
69'
M. Smith← Idrissa Sylla
70'
B. Woodburn← M. Duffy
83'
R. Leonard← D. McGoldrick
88'
C. Washington← O. Kakay
90'
Ben Woodburn

Possession

53%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

53%QPR

Statistics

QPRSheffield
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots8
4Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots8
6On Target5
6Off Target1
2Blocked2
7Inside Box7
7Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
429Total Passes389
351Accurate Passes279
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: QPR vs Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on August 11, 2018.

Goals: E. Eze (29'), B. Sharp (43'), D. McGoldrick (65' pen).

QPR controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.