QPR 1–2 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Portsmouth

K. Dembélé 9'

C. Lang 57' (pen)

F. Potts 18'

10/19/2024

Championship · Round 10MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

QPR47%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.01

QPR

1.44

Portsmouth

1.01

QPR creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

1.34

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

QPR

1.34

Portsmouth

0.89

allows per match

QPR

1.14

Portsmouth

1.53

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

QPR+0.10scores more

Portsmouth+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw

74%

QPR or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

23%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

76%

QPR 2+ goals

42%

QPR 3+ goals

18%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

64%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

27%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

64%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Portsmouth defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Portsmouth attack 0.89 + QPR defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more

47%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

26%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Dembélé

QPR · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

18'

47'

54'

57'

C. LangPenalty

61'

64'

64'

64'

71'

K. Yengi← M. O’Mahony

73'

K. Saito← K. Paal

80'

E. Sørensen← J. Murphy

81'

L. Andersen← K. Dembélé

81'

T. Devlin← C. Lang

85'

Jordan Williams

90+7'

Kusini Yengi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRPortsmouth

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots11

0.86Expected Goals (xG)1.43

3Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots11

8On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

511Total Passes278

369Accurate Passes139

72%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2