Portsmouth 2–1 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Portsmouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

QPR

M. Ritchie 51'

J. Murphy 48'

J. Dunne 74'

2/22/2025

Championship · Round 34Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Portsmouth44%

×Draw28%

QPR28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.95

Portsmouth

1.28

QPR

0.95

Portsmouth creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

0.77

1.14

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.40

QPR

0.77

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.14

QPR

1.17

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.27scores less

QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

72%

Portsmouth or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

56%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

20%

QPR wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

72%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

37%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

14%

QPR 1+ goals

61%

QPR 2+ goals

25%

QPR 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

61%

QPR (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 38 matches

QPR away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.40 + QPR defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

QPR attack 0.77 + Portsmouth defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portsmouth scores more

44%

level

28%

QPR scores more

28%

Portsmouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Murphy

Portsmouth · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

Connor Ogilvie

39'

R. Poole← R. Atkinson

45+4'

Michael Frey

48'

J. Murphy↳ A. Dozzell

51'

M. Ritchie↳ J. Murphy

61'

T. Devlin← Z. Swanson

61'

M. Pack← I. Hayden

68'

J. Colback← S. Field

68'

Yang Min-Hyeok← M. Frey

68'

A. Lloyd← P. Smyth

74'

J. Dunne↳ I. Chair

79'

C. Bramall← A. Aouchiche

79'

C. Saydee← M. Ritchie

80'

86'

87'

90+5'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthQPR

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots9

1.73Expected Goals (xG)0.69

5Corners1

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target4

2Off Target3

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

307Total Passes361

175Accurate Passes221

57%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3