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Portsmouth vs QPR — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
T. Devlin 45'
J. Dunne 61'
12/26/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Portsmouth45%
×Draw28%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.32
QPR
0.94

Portsmouth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.48
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.10
QPR
1.16

finishing

Portsmouth-0.35scores less
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
73%
Portsmouth or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
21%
QPR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
73%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
38%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
15%
QPR 1+ goals
61%
QPR 2+ goals
24%
QPR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
63%
QPR (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 23 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.48 + QPR defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

QPR attack 0.78 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more
45%
level
28%
QPR scores more
27%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
T. DevlinPortsmouthPortsmouth · D
8.5

Match Events

45'
T. Devlin
59'
A. Segecic← H. Blair
61'
J. Dunne↳ N. Madsen
62'
Adrian Segecic
69'
M. Pack← M. Kosznovszky
71'
I. Hayden← J. Varane
71'
K. Poku← K. Dembele
71'
P. Smyth← K. Saito
85'
Yang Min-Hyuk← C. Chaplin
85'
M. Frey← R. Kone
87'
Isaac Hayden
88'
Rhys Norrington-Davies
90+1'
S. Field← R. Norrington-Davies

Possession

67%Portsmouth

Shots

8Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

54%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthQPR
Overview
67%Possession33%
8Total Shots8
0.53Expected Goals (xG)0.47
9Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots8
2On Target3
4Off Target5
2Blocked0
7Inside Box4
1Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
585Total Passes290
494Accurate Passes211
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs QPR

Portsmouth and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on December 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Devlin (45'), J. Dunne (61').

Portsmouth controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.