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QPR vs Hull City — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
R. Burrell 66'
J. Dunne 55'
I. Chair 38'
E. Destan 51'
J. Gelhardt 17'
11/22/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

QPR48%
×Draw26%
Hull City26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.53
Hull City
1.06

QPR creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

QPR
1.30
Hull City
1.18

allows per match

QPR
0.94
Hull City
1.76

finishing

QPR+0.28scores more
Hull City+0.02on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw
74%
QPR or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
52%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
24%
Hull City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
78%
QPR 2+ goals
45%
QPR 3+ goals
20%
Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
65%
Hull City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.30 + Hull City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hull City attack 1.18 + QPR defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

QPR scores more
48%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
26%

QPR at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · M
8.7

Match Events

17'
J. Gelhardt↳ R. Slater
38'
I. Chair
51'
E. Destan↳ R. Giles
55'
J. Dunne↳ I. Chair
61'
S. Cook← J. Clarke-Salter
62'
D. Gyabi← A. Hadziahmetovic
63'
J. Ndala← E. Destan
66'
R. Burrell
72'
K. Morgan← A. S. Mbengue
72'
R. Kolli← R. Kone
72'
M. Belloumi← R. Slater
79'
K. Saito← K. Dembele
84'
B. Akintola← K. Joseph
90+2'
Matt Crooks

Possession

42%QPR

Shots

26QPR

Pass accuracy

49%QPR

Statistics

QPRHull
Overview
42%Possession58%
26Total Shots8
3.02Expected Goals (xG)1.12
9Corners5
8Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots8
8On Target4
8Off Target2
10Blocked2
15Inside Box6
11Outside Box2
Passing
42%Possession58%
356Total Passes504
295Accurate Passes436
83%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.03Goals Prevented-0.03
Discipline
8Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1

Championship: QPR 3–2 Hull City

QPR beat Hull City 3-2 in Championship on November 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Gelhardt (17'), I. Chair (38'), E. Destan (51'), J. Dunne (55'), R. Burrell (66').

Hull City controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 26.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.