Hull City 1–3 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Hull City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

QPR

J. Gelhardt 39'

R. Kone 90'

D. Bennie 84'

P. McNair 21' (OG)

2/21/2026

Championship · Round 33MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Hull City43%

×Draw27%

QPR30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Hull City

1.33

QPR

1.06

Hull City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Hull City

1.37

QPR

0.91

allows per match

Hull City

1.21

QPR

1.28

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.29scores less

QPR+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

70%

Hull City or QPR

73%

Draw or QPR

57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

20%

QPR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

38%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

QPR 1+ goals

65%

QPR 2+ goals

29%

QPR 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

59%

QPR (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

QPR away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.37 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

QPR attack 0.91 + Hull City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more

43%

level

27%

QPR scores more

30%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Kone

QPR · F

8.2

Match Events

21'

P. McNairOwn goal

37'

39'

44'

45+1'

57'

K. Dowell← Y. Hirakawa

68'

J. Lundstram← L. Millar

68'

L. Koumas← A. Hadziahmetovic

74'

78'

79'

80'

80'

84'

85'

J. Clarke-Salter← A. S. Mbengue

90+3'

K. Morgan← K. Saito

90'

R. Kone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullQPR

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots12

2.11Expected Goals (xG)1.73

8Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target8

4Off Target3

6Blocked1

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

440Total Passes310

350Accurate Passes229

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

1.23Goals Prevented1.23

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Hull City 1 – 3 QPR

QPR beat Hull City 3-1 in Championship on February 21, 2026.

Goals: P. McNair (21' o.g.), J. Gelhardt (39'), D. Bennie (84'), R. Kone (90').

Hull City controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.

Hull City vs QPR — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Hull City 1 – 3 QPR