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QPR vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
8/16/2014Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Loftus Road Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

QPR52%
×Draw25%
Hull City23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.58
Hull City
0.95

QPR creates 66% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

QPR
1.27
Hull City
0.53

allows per match

QPR
1.36
Hull City
1.89

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
77%
QPR or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
48%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
27%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
79%
QPR 2+ goals
47%
QPR 3+ goals
21%
Hull City 1+ goals
61%
Hull City 2+ goals
25%
Hull City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
70%
Hull City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.27 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hull City attack 0.53 + QPR defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

QPR scores more
52%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
23%

QPR at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: QPR vs Hull City

Hull City beat QPR 1-0 in Premier League on August 16, 2014.

The match was played at Loftus Road Stadium (London).