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QPR vs Hull City — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
12/9/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw26%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.45
Hull City
1.13

QPR creates 28% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

creates per match

QPR
1.34
Hull City
1.12

allows per match

QPR
1.14
Hull City
1.55

finishing

QPR+0.10scores more
Hull City-0.01on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
22%
Hull City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
77%
QPR 2+ goals
42%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Hull City 1+ goals
68%
Hull City 2+ goals
31%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Hull City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Hull City defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hull City attack 1.12 + QPR defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
29%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: QPR 2–0 Hull City

QPR beat Hull City 2-0 in Championship on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.