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Hull City vs QPR — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
QPR
QPR
4/13/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Hull City41%
×Draw28%
QPR31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.28
QPR
1.07

Hull City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
QPR
0.77

allows per match

Hull City
1.38
QPR
1.17

finishing

Hull City-0.07on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
66%
QPR 2+ goals
29%
QPR 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
57%
QPR (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

QPR away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + QPR defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

QPR attack 0.77 + Hull City defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
41%
level
28%
QPR scores more
31%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hull City vs QPR

Hull City beat QPR 3-0 in Championship on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.