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QPR vs Charlton — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
R. Kone 90'
K. Saito 84'
P. Smyth 8'
R. Apter 54'
8/30/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw27%
Charlton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.44
Charlton
1.00

QPR creates 44% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Charlton
1.55

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
74%
QPR or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
23%
Charlton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
76%
QPR 2+ goals
42%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Charlton 1+ goals
63%
Charlton 2+ goals
26%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
64%
Charlton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Charlton attack 0.89 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
26%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
P. SmythQPRQPR · M
8.0

Match Events

8'
P. Smyth↳ H. Vale
17'
Conor Coventry
38'
Liam Morrison
46'
R. Kolli← P. Smyth
54'
R. Apter↳ T. Campbell
60'
K. Saito← K. Dembele
65'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
68'
Esquerdinha← R. Norrington-Davies
68'
R. Burrell← H. Vale
68'
H. Knibbs← S. Carey
68'
C. Kelman← R. Apter
78'
Josh Edwards
81'
I. Hayden← J. Varane
84'
K. Saito↳ Esquerdinha
90+2'
J. Rankin-Costello← C. Coventry
90+2'
I. Fullah← M. Leaburn
90'
T. Olaofe← G. Docherty
90'
R. Kone↳ R. Burrell

Possession

45%QPR

Shots

13QPR

Pass accuracy

47%QPR

Statistics

QPRCharlton
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots13
1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.84
1Corners2
16Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots13
6On Target3
4Off Target6
3Blocked4
7Inside Box7
6Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
318Total Passes382
204Accurate Passes271
64%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-1.20Goals Prevented-1.20
Discipline
16Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: QPR vs Charlton

QPR beat Charlton 3-1 in Championship on August 30, 2025.

Goals: P. Smyth (8'), R. Apter (54'), K. Saito (84'), R. Kone (90').

Charlton controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.