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Charlton vs QPR — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
D. Pratley 12'
6/27/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Charlton40%
×Draw29%
QPR31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.18
QPR
1.02

Charlton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 59 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.10
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Charlton
1.27
QPR
1.26

finishing

Charlton-0.10scores less
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
60%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
17%
QPR wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
69%
Charlton 2+ goals
33%
Charlton 3+ goals
12%
QPR 1+ goals
64%
QPR 2+ goals
27%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
56%
QPR (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

QPR attack 0.78 + Charlton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
40%
level
29%
QPR scores more
31%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
J. CullenCharltonCharlton · M
7.7

Match Events

12'
D. Pratley↳ J. Cullen
60'
A. Doughty← A. McGeady
60'
C. Aneke← T. Hemed
60'
O. Shodipo← I. Chair
71'
A. Oteh← B. Osayi-Samuel
71'
T. Kane← Àngel Rangel
71'
L. Amos← G. Cameron
76'
Darren Pratley
77'
B. Purrington← A. Oshilaja
77'
F. Bettache← D. Ball
84'
S. Field← M. Bonne
84'
A. Green← A. Morgan

Possession

35%Charlton

Shots

12Charlton

Pass accuracy

47%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonQPR
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots6
10Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots6
5On Target1
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
35%Possession65%
322Total Passes631
239Accurate Passes536
74%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Charlton 1–0 QPR

Charlton beat QPR 1-0 in Championship on June 27, 2020.

Goals: D. Pratley (12').

QPR controlled possession (65%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Valley in London.