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QPR vs Charlton — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
M. Pugh 70'
G. Cameron 6'
N. Sarr 90+5'
L. Taylor 56'
12/21/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw27%
Charlton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.43
Charlton
1.01

QPR creates 42% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Charlton
1.55

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
73%
QPR or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
23%
Charlton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
76%
QPR 2+ goals
42%
QPR 3+ goals
17%
Charlton 1+ goals
64%
Charlton 2+ goals
27%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
64%
Charlton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlton attack 0.89 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
27%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. PhillipsCharltonCharlton · G
7.7

Match Events

6'
G. Cameron
11'
Ben Purrington
11'
A. Morgan← J. Leko
17'
Darren Pratley
27'
J. Pearce← B. Purrington
53'
Ryan Manning
53'
Jason Pearce
53'
Albie Morgan
55'
Luke Amos
56'
L. Taylor↳ A. Morgan
66'
B. Osayi-Samuel← N. Wells
70'
M. Pugh↳ B. Osayi-Samuel
78'
I. Chair← M. Pugh
78'
J. Scowen← L. Amos
81'
Jordan Hugill
88'
A. Oshilaja← A. Doughty
89'
Adam Matthews
90+5'
N. Sarr

Possession

57%QPR

Shots

21QPR

Pass accuracy

54%QPR

Statistics

QPRCharlton
Overview
57%Possession43%
21Total Shots11
9Corners8
13Fouls14
Shots
21Total Shots11
9On Target4
7Off Target5
5Blocked2
15Inside Box9
6Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
444Total Passes319
344Accurate Passes210
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls14
3Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Match Recap: QPR vs Charlton

QPR and Charlton drew 2-2 in Championship on December 21, 2019.

Goals: G. Cameron (6'), L. Taylor (56'), M. Pugh (70'), N. Sarr (90+5').

QPR controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.