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QPR vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
Preview
18:45
Cardiff
Cardiff
9/2/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Loftus Road
Big match
43%
QPR
model favours
43%25%32%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw25%
Cardiff32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.53
Cardiff
1.29

QPR creates 19% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 46 away

creates per match

QPR
1.41
Cardiff
0.98

allows per match

QPR
1.61
Cardiff
1.65

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

QPR or draw
68%
QPR or Cardiff
75%
Draw or Cardiff
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
21%
Cardiff wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
78%
QPR 2+ goals
45%
QPR 3+ goals
20%
Cardiff 1+ goals
72%
Cardiff 2+ goals
37%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
57%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.61 · 41 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.41 + Cardiff defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cardiff attack 0.98 + QPR defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
25%
Cardiff scores more
32%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • QPR outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
QPR
WDLLL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

QPR vs Cardiff — Match Preview

QPR face Cardiff on September 2, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

QPR host Cardiff at Loftus Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.