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Cardiff vs QPR — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
11/27/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cardiff41%
×Draw29%
QPR30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.23
QPR
1.01

Cardiff creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.24
QPR
0.88

allows per match

Cardiff
1.15
QPR
1.21

finishing

Cardiff-0.54scores less
QPR+0.69scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
70%
Cardiff or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
71%
Cardiff 2+ goals
35%
Cardiff 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
64%
QPR 2+ goals
27%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
58%
QPR (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 10 matches

QPR away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.24 + QPR defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

QPR attack 0.88 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more
41%
level
29%
QPR scores more
30%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 QPR

QPR beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.