QPR 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

P. Smyth 52'

P. Ng 74'

D. Goutas 16'

1/1/2024

Championship · Round 26MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

QPR47%

×Draw31%

Cardiff23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.72

QPR

1.17

Cardiff

0.72

QPR creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

0.57

0.87

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

QPR

1.39

Cardiff

0.57

allows per match

QPR

0.87

Cardiff

0.96

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

QPR+0.28scores more

Cardiff+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

QPR or draw

77%

QPR or Cardiff

69%

Draw or Cardiff

53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

20%

Cardiff wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

69%

QPR 2+ goals

33%

QPR 3+ goals

11%

Cardiff 1+ goals

51%

Cardiff 2+ goals

16%

Cardiff 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

67%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.39 + Cardiff defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cardiff attack 0.57 + QPR defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more

47%

level

31%

Cardiff scores more

23%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Goutas

Cardiff · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

D. Goutas↳ J. Ralls

46'

R. Kolli← Z. Larkeche

52'

58'

60'

63'

67'

A. Adomah← E. Dixon-Bonner

74'

O. Tanner← R. Colwill

74'

P. Ng↳ R. Wintle

81'

S. Armstrong← R. Kolli

81'

M. Fox← J. Clarke-Salter

85'

87'

87'

89'

90+2'

90+6'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRCardiff

Overview

64%Possession36%

8Total Shots10

0.61Expected Goals (xG)0.52

1Corners6

12Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

537Total Passes305

434Accurate Passes207

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Championship: QPR 1–2 Cardiff

Cardiff beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on January 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Goutas (16'), P. Smyth (52'), P. Ng (74').

QPR controlled possession (64%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.

QPR vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: QPR 1–2 Cardiff