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QPR vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
4/5/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

QPR46%
×Draw31%
Cardiff23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.15
Cardiff
0.72

QPR creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

QPR
1.26
Cardiff
0.62

allows per match

QPR
0.83
Cardiff
1.03

finishing

QPR+0.17scores more
Cardiff+0.52scores more

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

QPR or draw
77%
QPR or Cardiff
69%
Draw or Cardiff
54%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Cardiff wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
68%
QPR 2+ goals
32%
QPR 3+ goals
11%
Cardiff 1+ goals
51%
Cardiff 2+ goals
16%
Cardiff 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
67%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 7 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.26 + Cardiff defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cardiff attack 0.62 + QPR defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

QPR scores more
46%
level
31%
Cardiff scores more
23%

QPR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. DunneQPRQPR · D
7.9

Match Events

28'
Rubin Colwill
30'
Liam Morrison
46'
C. Robinson← I. Davies
46'
J. Daland← J. Bagan
46'
O. Tanner← W. Alves
54'
K. Dembélé← A. Lloyd
54'
J. Varane← S. Field
54'
D. Bennie← L. Andersen
61'
K. Morgan← Yang Min-Hyeok
66'
Y. Meïté← C. Ashford

Possession

60%QPR

Shots

11QPR

Pass accuracy

57%QPR

Statistics

QPRCardiff
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots13
0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.59
7Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target2
3Off Target6
4Blocked5
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box7
Passing
60%Possession40%
387Total Passes249
302Accurate Passes149
78%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.90Goals Prevented0.90
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Championship: QPR 0–0 Cardiff

QPR and Cardiff drew 0-0 in Championship on April 5, 2025.

QPR controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.